A Possible Way Through

Today's blog was going to be called 'avoiding the worst' but now it's only optimistic titles - my one good deed for the day.

Last night, in meeting arranged by hicca - just Google to find website, I went to hear Mark Lynas - a journalist from Oxford who wrote '6 Degrees'. It's an understandably depressing book looking at the likely effect of each degree rise in temperature. It was turned into a National Geographic film that was apparently shown on Sky recently. Luckily he just showed snippets from the film and focused mainly on questions and answer.

His main views/messages were:

1. The critical date is 11 Dec 2009 which is the next UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. We either agree on a worldwide framework with binding targets to reduce carbon emissions of it will be too late.
- he said 'yes' to a question of where people should attend the Kingsnorth, Kent Climate Camp 3-11th August. He says will be there and that these meetings look scary on the news because of the large police presence but they are friendly and peaceful.
2. He is more optimistic as he see changes happening like huge and growing investment in renewables, much more public interest, transition towns and other initiatives sweeping across the UK etc. He thinks thinks that an awareness tipping point has been reached and that we can stay below 2 Deg C - unfortunately most others that I hear say this is now unlikely but maybe we can stay within the ball park.
3. At Bali he saw no hordes of industry lobbyists swarming through the corridors - business has bought into the need for change. They just want governments to agree the framework and targets
4. He thinks carbon credits are too complicated. We already have the price mechanism to
affect behaviour so we should use that.
5. He advocates focusing on the production of fossil energy (oil/gas/coal) measuring and controlling how much is produced. The worldwide limit will be set each year and reduced over time to meet emission targets. Companies will bid for the right to produce and the funds will be used to support those countries/sectors that need help e.g. under developed/threatened lands or renewable sector etc. Meanwhile the higher price will filter down into the cost of goods that are carbon intensive
6. He reckons that this will lead to growth driven by the move other energy sources/technologies.

Some of my comments on this:
- It sounds simple and elegant. I hope the clamp that this will put on world economic activity will be offset in development in new sectors, otherwise political opposition may kill it. He says it happens over years so the world economy can adjust.
- It does not take account of other ecological pressures e.g. water, land etc. I think he would say we need to fix the carbon
- What do economists think about this? And other specialists? I will raise it in other meetings.